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BREAKING: Trump Impeachment Trial HAPPENING

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So just one day after we got our hands on these extraordinarily incriminating suggesting that Donald Trump's lawyers henchman I'm talking of course of Rudy Giuliani's henchman, Lev Parness and Igor Fruman Uh, after the texts exposed that they had ambassador Maria Bonovitch under physical surveillance, Nancy Pelosi and the house of representatives have moved forward with the impeachment of Donald Trump sending the two articles of impeachment over to the United States Senate

The vote to do this was almost among party lines or along party lines, I guess I would say two 28 to one 93 The only Democrat Colin Peterson, uh, to vote a no was a guy who is known as a Democrat in name only Collin Peterson Frequently grandstanding with Republicans despite being a Democrat in some technical sense Uh, the house also voted to approve seven impeachment managers

Now these, these are all Democrats of course, who are effectively going to act as sort of prosecuting attorneys against Donald Trump in the Senate trial This will be explosive It's going to be ugly We're going to talk about the proceedings and what we can expect a little bit later The seven impeachment managers that have been selected are Adam Schiff, Hakeem Jeffries, Jason Crow, Jerry Nadler, Sylvia Garcia, Val Demings, and Zoe Lofgren

Maybe the most interesting inclusion in that list is Jason Crow from Colorado He's a first term Congressman He's not on the house judiciary or intelligence committees from which every other impeachment manager hails But the theme here is that everybody who is going to be all seven of these individuals have, uh, either law degrees or law enforcement backgrounds Interestingly, Zoe Lofgren has served in all modern impeachment related proceedings

She was a staffer during the Nixon pre impeachment, which never became an impeachment It ended up with his resignation, Nixon's resignation Once it became clear that impeachment would likely lead to a conviction because Republican voters and Republican senators had abandoned him Uh, she was on the judiciary committees, Zoe Lofgren during bill Clinton's impeachment, and here she is again, uh, during Donald Trump's impeachment The trial is tentatively scheduled to start Tuesday, but there is going to be a lot of lead up before what you and I would consider the trial actually gets going

I'll talk that a little bit later We're still trying to figure out what will be public, what might they push behind closed doors When we know more, we'll know more about what we will or won't be Live streaming My instinct is to stream as much of what is public as possible and we'll talk about that a little bit later on in the show as well

There are still questions about what witnesses are going to be there Remember that while you need two thirds of the Senate to convict Trump, uh, 67 senators effectively, which would be 45 Democrats, the two independents that caucus with Democrats plus 20 Republicans, in order to convict Donald Trump for subpoenaing witnesses, for agreeing to subpoena witnesses, you only need 51 you only need a simple majority and that means you only need four Republicans Assuming all 47 Democrats and independents are onboard, only four Republicans need to agree to subpoena a witness Someone in order to make that happen We've heard that Mitt Romney wants to hear from John Bolton

So is does that mean he would vote to subpoena him? That's one vote that you would still need three more And then of course the normal names are always floated Maybe Lisa Murkowski, although maybe not, maybe Susan Collins, although often not Um, maybe Cory gardener, although we can't really say the same sort of general questions apply to which documents are going to be allowed Certainly the absolutely insane text messages about Maria Bonovitch being under physical surveillance, watching her movements and relaying them back to left Parness that should be part of the trial Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell is absolutely going to try to keep those documents out

And of course, Donald Trump's immediate reaction was to start tweeting wacky stuff, which we're going to look at in a moment I think this is a good time to remember We want to be evidence-based and when we look at the evidence, we shouldn't irrationally and, uh, irrationally optimistically believe that this is a process that's going to lead to Donald Trump's conviction I know that I still get emails from people saying, David, don't assume as a foregone conclusion that Donald Trump will be acquitted in the Senate Okay

With 99% certainty I, I've been reading a great book called thinking in bets, which says we should, we should talk more about confidence with 99% certainty Donald Trump is not going to be convicted in this trial, so therefore I'm going to try to focus my analysis of the trial on the basis that given that a conviction is so unlikely, what is the best setup for ultimately helping to push Trump out of the oval office by voting in November of 2020 ultimately removing him in January of 2021 given that it is unlikely that a conviction is at the tail end of this, what can Democrats do during the trial? How can they manage the obstructive desires of Mitch McConnell and other Republicans in the lead up to the trial to most damaged Donald Trump? That's the lens I think is the most pragmatic one If there are still people in my audience who truly believe that the outcome of this trial, that is it, we now know it's not at some vague point in the future It starts Tuesday Unless something changes

If I still have people in my audience who believe there could be a conviction coming at the tail end of this, I want to hear from you I mean, I w I want to hear which 20 Republicans do you believe might vote to convict or if you believe that it's not about finding 20 Republicans, but it's about something in general will happen in the next couple of weeks that will turn the entire Republican party against Donald Trump I'm talking about his supporters, uh, because that's what it would take to get Republicans to abandon him Get in touch and explain to me exactly how you see that happening What will be the catalyst

And in the meantime, again, Trump and his family tweeting wacky stuff, which is what we're going to look at next

Source: Youtube

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