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BREAKING: President Donald Trump Impeached

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Yesterday was a truly historic day Donald Trump has become the third president in the history of the United States to be impeached, and this came at the conclusion of really almost 12 hours of proceedings in the house of representatives, including eight hours of debate

The house of representatives impeach the president of the United States on two articles Article one is abuse of power Article two is obstruction of Congress Now, there are both Republicans and some Democrats who are pretending that this is no big deal or they are skipping to, he's going to be acquitted in the Senate and not removed Therefore, this entire thing was a waste of time

That couldn't be the more, you couldn't find a more incorrect place to start our analysis of what took place yesterday So let's actually talk through it because this is huge news Only two presidents before Donald Trump have ever been impeached, one in the 19th century and another in the 20th century And now we have Donald Trump, president number three in the 21st century This is very rare

Andrew Johnson was impeached in 1868 was impeached on 11 articles including violating the tenure of office act and Andrew Johnson was acquitted in the eventual impeachment trial Go to the 20th century In 1998, bill Clinton was impeached for lying under oath and for obstruction of justice related to a sexual harassment lawsuit that was filed against him by Paula Jones and related, uh, to, uh, bill Clinton's testimony denying a relationship he had had with white house intern, Monica Lewinsky Bill Clinton was also acquitted in the Senate impeachment trial Now, Richard Nixon was not impeached in the 1970s he would have been and likely would have been convicted

But knowing this, knowing that the Republican public had turned against Richard Nixon, knowing that Republicans in the Senate could no longer stand by Richard Nixon knowing he would be impeached and convicted He resigned on August 9th, 1974 An iconic moment in American political history Quick reminder of that on the great issue with peace abroad and prosperity without inflation at home Therefore, I shall resign the presidency effective at noon tomorrow

Vice president Ford will be sworn in as president at that hour So a huge, huge deal Even Nixon was not impeached but resigned Let's go to video from yesterday Last night, uh, we were streaming at the time, I think it must've been about eight, 8:15 PM Eastern time, a video from the house of representatives, speaker of the house, Nancy Pelosi announcing the impeachment

You will also, if you're watching notice her visibly quiet, the applause and cheering that broke out from the democratic side, clearly wanting, uh, not to make this seem like something you would cheer about because it is very serious quite frankly Here she is announcing article number one impeachment of Donald Trump on this vote The yeas are 230 The nays are one 97 present is one article, one is adopted The question is aren't adoption of articles

And then very shortly thereafter, after a five minute plus, a couple extra minute vote on article two, obstruction of Congress, Nancy Pelosi speaker of the house announcing that Donald Trump has also been impeached on article number two on this vote The A's are 229 the nays are one 98 Present is one Article two is adopted The votes were all most almost along party lines

230 in total voting for impeachment on article one because of vacancies in the house Instead of two 18 to impeach, they needed only two 16 They got two 30 on article two, uh, almost the same numbers, 229 voting to impeach one former Republican who is now an independent Justin Amash voted to impeach on both counts You then had two Democrats, Collin Peterson of Minnesota who some know of as a dyno Democrat in name only, Colin Peterson of Minnesota, not voting to impeach Jefferson van drew of New Jersey voting not to impeach And van drew is um, this member who's made headlines over the last few days

He's expected to switch from being a Democrat to a Republican very, very soon And then you had Jared golden of Maine who split his vote saying yes on article one no on article two And that's why there were 230 votes in favor on article one Uh, only 229 votes in favor on article two Then you had a one individual who voted present and that was, um, there's this Hawaii Congress woman she's running, um, technically running for president, uh, Tulsi Gabard who is not seeking reelection for her seat

She took no position voting merely present on both articles She said, quote, I could not in good conscience vote against impeachment because I believe Donald Trump is guilty of wrongdoing I also could not in good conscience vote for impeachment because removal of a sitting president must not be the culmination of a partisan process Now what's complete nonsense about that is that there's never an even split in Congress between the parties So by definition you have 435, it's an odd number

It's always a partisan process in the sense that it's led by one party Uh, and by that logic, she could never vote to impeach anyone Now, I guess what she's saying is she would've preferred the process, involve more Republicans, but that's a completely unrealistic expectation in the hyper-partisan Fox news era of politics I don't want to waste too much time on Tulsi Gabard Who cares what she does? Okay

She decided to just ride the middle I do think it is yet another signal that she may be planning a third party run for president, which could have its own series of implications She'll be gone for the house in January Okay I don't think I need to say too much more about that

Now, here is Trump I'm talking back in 2008 with Wolf Blitzer You know what took place yesterday was a big deal It was carried out by serious people, Nancy Pelosi speaker of the house You had uh, uh, um, uh, Adam Schiff in the house intelligence committee

You had Jerry Nadler in the house judiciary committee These are serious people doing serious work Here's video of Donald Trump Back in 2008 telling Wolf Blitzer, he finds Nancy Pelosi impressive and would like to have seen her actually do more on impeachment in times past This is a classic video instantly

Nancy Pelosi, the speaker, well, you know when she first got in and was named speaker, I met her and I'm very impressed by her I think she's a very impressive person I like her a lot, but I was surprised that she didn't do more in terms of Bush and going after Bush It was almost, it just seemed like she was going to really look to impeach Bush and get him out of office, which personally I think would have been a wonderful thing for the war, for the war because of the conduct We lied

He got us into the war with lies and I mean, look at the trouble bill Clinton got into with something that was totally unimportant and they tried to impeach him, which was nonsense And yet Bush got us into this horrible war with lies by lying, by saying they had weapons of mass destruction by saying all sorts of things that turned out not to be true So Nancy Pelosi has done it and this is already significant no matter what anybody tells you, this is a huge deal This is a historic day Now let's talk about the next step

The next step is a trial in the Senate without regard to the likely outcome of the Senate trial Impeachment is a serious constitutional responsibility given to the house and Senate and the house did its job And I know that there are lots of people and they're emailing me and tweeting me saying, Trump's going to be acquitted in the Senate This is all a waste of time The house is the, it has a role to play in this process and it is to determine whether articles of impeachment are appropriate

They did their job Now I agree with you The most likely outcome of the trial in the Senate is Trump being acquitted because Republicans control the Senate and we'll go through the math in a moment But you sometimes just have to do the right thing because it's the right thing to do, even if it won't have the immediate effect that you might want Imagine not doing this and then Trump gets himself reelected and then in five or 10 years you realize why, why didn't I vote to impeach? It was the right thing to do

It might have prevented Trump from getting reelected, although it might not Uh Oh right We calculated we were going to lose in the Senate No, that's not how we do things Trump has been daring anyone to hold them accountable and he's basically not been held accountable

He has now been impeached and is one of only three presidents in history to have suffered that fate It's the right step, even if he is not going to be convicted in the Senate So let's now get to the analysis of the Senate Is it possible that Donald Trump will be convicted in the Senate? Sure It's possible

The math is you need two third support There's a hundred senators Two thirds is 66 and two thirds, meaning 67 senators need to vote to convict In order for the president to be removed We have 45 Democrats in the Senate

There are two independence, Bernie Sanders and Angus King who caucus with the Democrats That's like 47 votes probably for conviction Joe mansion The most conservative democratic Senator, uh, might not vote to convict We don't know

But for our purposes today, let's assume we have 47 votes in the Senate That means you need 20 Republicans Uh, Chris Murphy, a Senator from Connecticut says he thinks that there's about five Republican senators that would consider voting, uh, for conviction Uh, bill weld, former Republican governor here in Massachusetts who's running a pretty flimsy, uh, campaign, but a campaign nonetheless, a primary campaign against Donald Trump Bill weld says he thinks there's about five Republicans that would consider voting to convict

That won't be enough Even if that's true, it won't be enough So is it likely that Trump will be convicted, convicted? Absolutely not The Republican public and voters don't want it Republican senators I don't think would even really consider it unfortunately unless the electorate wanted it because it would be too politically disadvantageous or at least potentially risky

Um, but the idea would be if Chris Murphy and bill weld are correct, if there are a handful of Republicans willing to vote for conviction, maybe that would spread like a virus and if you know, I don't think it's going to happen, but if they decided that there would be a secret ballot where it wouldn't be known which senators vote, which way you might be able to enough momentum where you get 20 Republicans that say let's convict I think it is very unlikely If I had to handicap it, I would say it's a roughly two to 4% chance that something like that happens What are the logistics of the trial? Number one, when will the trial be? It's unclear because it was presumably going to be in January upon the return from holiday break But we have just heard from Nancy Pelosi and we'll deal with this story in full later on in the program, that she is going to withhold the articles from the Senate until such time that she believes there will be what she considers to be a fair hearing and a fair trial

That may never happen, but uh, the January date is now certainly a question Mark How long will the impeachment trial last? We don't know It would generally be expected to run somewhere between two and four weeks Will it be televised? I don't know Um, I did a bunch of research on this today and there is no hard and fast rule about what has to happen

It would be part of the negotiations that, um, the house leadership would have with Senate leadership as they move articles of impeachment in that direction Now, unfortunately, Donald Trump will also get a say because Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader has already said he will be in total coordination with the white house about how the impeachment trial will be carried out That's not good Uh, will this help Trump win in 2020? That is the major political question If Trump is convicted, he's out and he will not be reelected

Of course, if Trump is acquitted, there are two ways that it could go One is his acquittal is successfully used as look at this witch hunt I am a martyr I am the most unfairly treated president in history, which he's been tweeting about and we'll get to later and it reinvigorates his supporters, uh, and increases right-wing voter turnout and rockets him to reelection That is a plausible, and I would say even realistic political risk to this process

The other would be if the timing and the setup of impeachment, uh, it gets delayed a little bit So it starts overlapping with when we start getting into the general election, maybe over the summer, hypothetically, if it is televised, if Trump is constantly going crazy publicly, if it becomes subject matter of the debates between Donald Trump and the eventual democratic nominee, it could certainly end up hurting him It's a question Mark, but there are major political risks with this doesn't change that it's the right thing to do Lastly, would there be violence if Donald Trump were convicted and removed? Uh, I believe that there would they, uh, on the right, the Trump has to have been throwing around terms like a civil war picking sides And uh, well, you know, we also heard from that crazy pastor Rick Wiles who says that this is a Juku to remove Donald Trump and eventually the military will have to pick a side

I sadly believe there will be violence if Donald Trump were to be convicted on an, on impeachment And by the way, I think it's also quite plausible that there will be violence if Donald Trump loses the 2020 election But asserts that he didn't really lose that it was stolen from him in some way I fear violence over the next year and I, I hate to admit that, uh, let me know what you think about the house vote, the Senate trial We'll get to a lot of these sub stories including holding the articles of impeachment for a while, uh, before giving them over to the Senate in the next few segments

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You will be disgusted at how big the discount is, but your credit and debit cards will be very pleased with you Quick break We'll be right back after that

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