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Breaking Analysis: Emerging Tech sees Notable Decline post Covid-19

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>> Announcer: From theCUBE studios in Palo Alto in Boston, connecting with thought leaders all around the world, this is a CUBE conversation >> As you may recall, coming into the second part of 2019 we reported, based on ETR Survey data, that there was a narrowing of spending on emerging tech and an unplugging of a lot of legacy systems

This was really because people were going from experimentation into operationalizing their digital initiatives When COVID hit, conventional wisdom suggested that there would be a flight to safety Now, interestingly, we reported with Eric Bradley, based on one of the Venns, that a lot of CIOs were still experimenting with emerging vendors But this was very anecdotal Today, we have more data, fresh data, from the ETR Emerging Technology Study on private companies, which really does suggest that there's a notable decline in experimentation, and that's affecting emerging technology vendors

Hi, everybody, this is Dave Vellante, and welcome to this week's Wikibon Cube Insights, powered by ETR Once again, Sagar Kadakia is joining us Sagar is the Director of Research at ETR Sagar, good to see you Thanks for coming on

>> Good to see you again Thanks for having me, Dave >> So, it's really important to point out, this Emerging Tech Study that you guys do, it's different from your quarterly Technology Spending Intention Survey Take us through the methodology Guys, maybe you could bring up the first chart

And, Sagar, walk us through how you guys approach this >> No problem So, a lot of the viewers are used to seeing a lot of the results from the Technology Spending Intention Survey, or the TSIS, as we call it That study, as the title says, it really tracks spending intentions on more pervasive vendors, right, Microsoft, AWS, as an example What we're going to look at today is our Emerging Technology Study, which we conduct biannually, in May and November

This study is a little bit different We ask CIOs around evaluations, awareness, planned evaluations, so think of this as pre-spend, right So that's a major differentiator from the TSIS That, and this study, really focuses on private emerging providers We're really only focused on those really emerging private companies, say, like your Series B to Series G or H, whatever it may be, so, two big differences within those studies

And then today what we're really going to look at is the results from the Emerging Technology Study Just a couple of quick things here We had 811 CIOs participate, which represents about 380 billion in annual IT spend, so the results from this study matter We had almost 75 Fortune 100s take it So, again, we're really measuring how private emerging providers are doing in the largest organizations

And so today we're going to be reviewing notable sectors, but largely this survey tracks roughly 356 private technologies and frameworks >> All right, guys, bring up the pie chart, the next slide Now, Sagar, this is sort of a snapshot here, and it basically says that 44% of CIOs agree that COVID has decreased the organization's evaluation and utilization of emerging tech, despite what I mentioned, Eric Bradley's Venn, which suggested one CIO in particular said, "Hey, I always pick somebody in the lower left "of the magic quadrant" But, again, this is a static view I know we have some other data, but take us through this, and how this compares to other surveys that you've done

>> No problem So let's start with the high level takeaways And I'll actually kind of get into to the point that Eric was debating, 'cause that point is true It's just really how you kind of slice and dice the data to get to that So, what you're looking at here, and what the overall takeaway from the Emerging Technology Study was, is, you know, you are going to see notable declines in POCs, of proof-of-concepts, any valuations because of COVID-19

Even though we had been communicating for quite some time, you know, the last few months, that there's increasing pressure for companies to further digitize with COVID-19, there are IT budget constraints There is a huge pivot in IT resources towards supporting remote employees, a decrease in risk tolerance, and so that's why what you're seeing here is a rather notable number of CIOs, 44%, that said that they are decreasing their organization's evaluation and utilization of private emerging providers So that is notable >> Now, as you pointed out, you guys run this survey a couple of times a year So now let's look at the time series

Guys, if you bring up the next chart We can see how the sentiment has changed since last year And, of course, we're isolating here on some of larger companies So, take us through what this data means >> No problem

So, how do we quantify what we just saw in the prior slide? We saw 44% of CIOs indicating that they are going to be decreasing their evaluations But what exactly does that mean? We can pretty much determine that by looking at a lot of the data that we captured through our Emerging Technology Study There's a lot going on in this slide, but I'll walk you through it What you're looking at here is Fortune 1000 organizations, so we've really isolated the data to those organizations that matter So, let's start with the teal, kind of green line first, because I think it's a little bit easier to understand

What you're looking at, Fortune 1000 evaluations, both planned and current, okay? And you're looking at a time series, one year ago and six months ago So, two of the answer options that we provide CIOs in this survey, right, think about the survey as a grid, where you have seven answer options going horizontally, and then 300-plus vendors and technologies going vertically For any given vendor, they can essentially indicate one of these options, two of them being on currently evaluating them or I plan to evaluate them in six months So what you're looking at here is effectively the aggregate number, or the average number of Fortune 1000 evaluations So if you look into May 2019, all the way on the left of that chart, that 24% roughly means that a quarter of selections made by Fortune 1000 of the survey, they selected plan to evaluate or currently evaluating

If you fast-forward six months, to the middle of the chart, November '19, it's roughly the same, one in four technologies that are Fortune 1000 selected, they indicated that I plan or am currently evaluating them But now look at that big drop off going into May 2020, the 17%, right? So now one out of every six technologies, or one out of every selections that they made was an evaluation So a very notable drop And then if you look at the blue line, this is another answer option that we provided CIOs: I'm aware of the technology but I have no plans to evaluate So this answer option essentially tracks awareness levels

If you look at the last six months, look at that big uptick from 44% to over 50%, right? So now, essentially one out of every two technologies, or private technologies that a CIO is aware of, they have no plans to evaluate So this is going to have an impact on the general landscape, when we think about those private emerging providers But there is one caveat, and, Dave, this is what you mentioned earlier, this is what Eric was talking about The providers that are doing well are the ones that are work-from-home aligned And so, just like a few years ago, we were really analyzing results based on are you cloud-native or are you Cloud-aligned, because those technologies are going to do the best, what we're seeing in the emerging space is now the same thing

Those emerging providers that enable organizations to maintain productivity for their employees, essentially allowing their employees to work remotely, those emerging providers are still doing well And that is probably the second biggest takeaway from this study >> So now what we're seeing here is this flight to perceive safety, which, to your point, Sagar, doesn't necessarily mean good news for all enterprise tech vendors, but certainly for those that are positioned for the work-from-home pivot So now let's take a look at a couple of sectors We'll start with information security

We've reported for years about how the perimeter's been broken down, and that more spend was going to shift from inside the moat to a distributed network, and that's clearly what's happened as a result of COVID Guys, if you bring up the next chart Sagar, you take us through this >> No problem And as you imagine, I think that the big theme here is zero trust

So, a couple of things here And let me just explain this chart a little bit, because we're going to be going through a couple of these What you're seeing on the X-axis here, is this is effectively what we're classifying as near term growth opportunity from all customers The way we measure that effectively is we look at all the evaluations, current evaluations, planned evaluations, we look at people who are evaluated and plan to utilize these vendors The more indications you get on that the more to the top right you're going to be

The more indications you get around I'm aware of but I don't plan to evaluate, or I'm replacing this early-stage vendor, the further down and on the left you're going to be So, on the X-axis you have near term growth opportunity from all customers, and on the Y-axis you have near term growth opportunity from, really, the biggest shops in the world, your Global 2000, your Forbes Private 225, like Cargill, as an example, and then, of course, your federal agencies So you really want to be positioned up and to the right here So, the big takeaway here is zero trust So, just a couple of things on this slide when we think about zero trust

As organizations accelerate their Cloud and Saas spend because of COVID-19, and, you know, what we were talking about earlier, Dave, remote work becomes the new normal, that perimeter security approach is losing appeal, because the perimeter's less defined, right? Apps and data are increasingly being stored in the Cloud That, and employees are working remotely from everywhere, and they're accessing all of these items And so what we're seeing now is a big move into zero trust So, if we look at that chart again, what you're going to see in that upper right quadrant are a lot of identity and access management players And look at the bifurcation in general

This is what we were talking about earlier in terms of the landscape not doing well Most security vendors are in that red area, you know, in the middle to the bottom But if you look at the top right, what are you seeing here? Unify ID, Auth0, WSO2, right, all identity and access management players These are critical in your zero trust approach, and this is one of the few area where we are seeing upticks You also see here BitSight, Lucideus

So that's going to be security assessment You're seeing VECTRA and Netskope and Darktrace, and a few others here And Cloud Security and IDPS, Intrusion Detection and Prevention System So, very few sectors are seeing an uptick, very few security sectors actually look pretty good, based on opportunities that are coming But, essentially, all of them are in that work-from-home aligned security stack, so to speak

>> Right, and of course, as we know, as we've been reporting, buyers have options, from both established companies and these emerging companies that are public, Okta, CrowdStrike, Zscaler We've seen the work-from-home pivot benefit those guys, but even Palo Alto Networks, even CISCO, I asked (other speaker drowns out speech) last week, I said, "Hey, what about this pivot to work from home? "What about this zero trust?" And he said, "Look, the reality is, yes, "a big part of our portfolio is exposed "to that traditional infrastructure, "but we have options for zero trust as well" So, from a buyer's standpoint, that perceived flight to safety, you have a lot of established vendors, and that clearly is showing up in your data Now, the other sector that we want to talk about is database We've been reporting a lot on database, data warehouse

So, why don't you take us through the next graphic here, if you would >> Sagar: No problem So, our theme here is that Snowflake is really separating itself from the pack, and, again, you can see that here Private database and data warehousing vendors really continue to impact a lot of their public peers, and Snowflake is leading the way We expect Snowflake to gain momentum in the next few years

And, look, there's some rumors that IPOing soon And so when we think about that set-up, we like it, because as organizations transition away from hybrid Cloud architectures to 100% or near-100% public Cloud, Snowflake is really going to benefit So they look good, their data stacks look pretty good, right, that's resiliency, redundancy across data centers So we kind of like them as well Redis Labs bring a DB and they look pretty good here on the opportunity side, but we are seeing a little bit of churn, so I think probably Snowflake and DataStax are probably our two favorites here

And again, when you think about Snowflake, we continue to think more pervasive vendors, like Paradata and Cloudera, and some of the other larger database firms, they're going to continue seeing wallet and market share losses due to some of these emerging providers >> Yeah If you could just keep that slide up for a second, I would point out, in many ways Snowflake is kind of a safer bet, you know, we talk about flight to safety, because they're well-funded, they're established You can go from zero to Snowflake very quickly, that's sort of their mantra, if you will But I want to point out and recognize that it is somewhat oranges and tangerines here, Snowflake being an analytical database

You take MariaDB, for instance, I look at that, anyway, as relational and operational And then you mentioned DataStax I would say Couchbase, Redis Labs, Aerospike Cockroach is really a EValue Store You've got some non-relational databases in there But we're looking at the entire sector of databases, which has become a really interesting market But again, some of those established players are going to do very well, and I would put Snowflake on that cusp

As you pointed out, Bloomberg broke the story, I think last week, that they were contemplating an IPO, which we've known for a while >> Yeah And just one last thing on that We do like some of the more pervasive players, right Obviously, AWS, all their products, Redshift and DynamoDB

Microsoft looks really good It's just really some of the other legacy ones, like the Teradatas, the Oracles, the Hadoops, right, that we are going to be impacted And so the claw providers look really good >> So, the last decade has really brought forth this whole notion of DevOps, infrastructure as code, the whole API economy And that's the piece we want to jump into now

And there are some real stand-outs here, you know, despite the early data that we showed you, where CIOs are less prone to look at emerging vendors There are some, for instance, if you bring up the next chart, guys, like Hashi, that really are standing out, aren't they? >> That's right, Dave So, again, what you're seeing here is you're seeing that bifurcation that we were talking about earlier There are a lot of infrastructure software vendors that are not positioned well, but if you look at the ones at the top right that are positioned well We have two kind of things on here, starting with infrastructure automation We think a winner here is emerging with Terraform Look all the way up to the right, how well-positioned they are, how many opportunities they're getting And for the second straight survey now, Terraform is leading along their peers, Chef, Puppet, SaltStack

And they're leading their peers in so many different categories, notably on allocating more spend, which is obviously very important For Chef, Puppet and SaltStack, which you can see a little bit below, probably a little bit higher than the middle, we are seeing some elevator churn levels And so, really, Terraform looks like they're kind of separating themselves And we've got this great quote from the CIO just a few months ago, on why Terraform is likely pulling away, and I'll read it out here quickly "The Terraform tool creates "an entire infrastructure in a box

"Unlike vendors that use procedural languages, "like Ants, Bull and Chef, "it will show you the infrastructure "in the way you want it to be "You don't have to worry about "the things that happen underneath" I know some companies where you can put your entire Amazon infrastructure through Terraform If Amazon disappears, if your availability drops, load balancers, RDS, everything, you just run Terraform and everything will be created in 10 to 15 minutes So that shows you the power of Terraform and why we think it's ranked better than some of the other vendors

>> Yeah, I think that really does sum it up And, actually, guys, if you don't mind bringing that chart back up again So, a point out, so, Mitchell Hashimoto, Hashi, really, I believe I'm correct, talking to Stu about this a little bit, he sort of led the Terraform project, which is an Open Source project, and, to your point, very easy to deploy Chef, Puppet, Salt, they were largely disrupted by Cloud, because they're designed to automate deployment largely on-prem and DevOps, and now Terraform sort of packages everything up into a platform So, Hashi actually makes money, and you'll see it on this slide, and things, Vault, which is kind of their security play

You see GitLab on here That's really application tooling to deploy code You see Docker containers, you know, Docker, really all about open source, and they've had great adoption, Docker's challenge has always been monetization You see Turbonomic on here, which is application resource management You can't go too deep on these things, but it's pretty deep within this sector

But we are comparing different types of companies, but just to give you a sense as to where the momentum is All right, let's wrap here So maybe some final thoughts, Sagar, on the Emerging Technology Study, and then what we can expect in the coming month here, on the update in the Technology Spending Intention Study, please >> Yeah, no problem One last thing on the zero trust side that has been a big issue that we didn't get to cover, is VPN spend

Our data is pointing that, yes, even though VPN spend did increase the last few months because of remote work, we actually think that people are going to move away from that as they move onto zero trust So just one last point on that, just in terms of overall thoughts, you know, again, as we cover it, you can see how bifurcated all these spaces are Really, if we were to go sector by sector by sector, right, storage and block chain and MLAI and all that stuff, you would see there's a few or maybe one or two vendors doing well, and the majority of vendors are not seeing as many opportunities And so, again, are you work-from-home aligned? Are you the best vendor of all the other emerging providers? And if you fit those two criteria then you will continue seeing POCs and evaluations And if you don't fit that criteria, unfortunately, you're going to see less opportunities

So think that's really the big takeaway on that And then, just in terms of next steps, we're already transitioning now to our next Technology Spending Intention Survey That launched last week And so, again, we're going to start getting a feel for how CIOs are spending in 2H-20, right, so, for the back half of the year And our question changes a little bit

We ask them, "How do you plan on spending in the back half year "versus how you actually spent "in the first half of the year, or 1H-20?" So, we're kind of, tighten the screw, so to speak, and really getting an idea of what's spend going to look like in the back half, and we're also going to get some updates as it relates to budget impacts from COVID-19, as well as how vendor-relationships have changed, as well as business impacts, like layoffs and furloughs, and all that stuff So we have a tremendous amount of data that's going to be coming in the next few weeks, and it should really prepare us for what to see over the summer and into the fall >> Yeah, very excited, Sagar, to see that I just wanted to double down on what you said about changes in networking We've reported with you guys on NPLS networks, shifting to SD-WAN

But even VPN and SD-WAN are being called into question as the internet becomes the new private network And so lots of changes there And again, very excited to see updated data, return of post-COVID, as we exit this isolation economy Really want to point out to folks that this is not a snapshot survey, right? This is an ongoing exercise that ETR runs, and grateful for our partnership with you guys Check out ETR

plus, that's the ETR website I publish weekly on Wikiboncom and SiliconANGLEcom Sagar, thanks so much for coming on

Once again, great to have you >> Thank you so much, for having me, Dave I really appreciate it, as always >> And thank you for watching this episode of theCube Insights, powered by ETR This Dave Vellante

We'll see you next time (gentle music)

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